Effects of COVID-19 confinement on the incidence and mortality of major osteoporotic fractures: an observational study in Catalonia, Spain.

There is little information on how the COVID-19 lockdown influenced the epidemiology of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF). We analyzed the incidence and mortality of MOF in 2020 compared with 2018-2019 in Catalonia, Spain. The incidence of MOF decreased steeply, and post-fracture mortality increased during the lockdown and throughout 2020. PURPOSE: To analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) incidence and mortality in Catalonia in 2020 and describe how age, sex, and the prior comorbidity burden influenced the epidemiology of MOF types. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, data on age and sex in people aged ≥ 50 years with a new diagnosis of MOF in 2018, 2019, and 2020 were collected. Average daily rates (ADR) were estimated overall and for five MOF: hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus, vertebrae, and pelvis. Morbidity was assessed using Adjusted Morbidity Groups. ADR in 2020 and the previous years were compared for overall and site-specific MOF in four consecutive time periods: pre-confinement, lockdown, deconfinement, and post-confinement. Thirty-day post-fracture mortality was assessed. COVID-19-related mortality was obtained from the Catalan COVID-19 register. RESULTS: From 2018 to 2020, there were 86,412 MOF. The ADR of MOF initially increased in 2020 before the pandemic, decreased steeply during lockdown, and remained lower in the rest of the year. The decrease was steeper in vertebral, pelvic and arm fractures, and lower in hip fractures. Differences were more pronounced in younger age groups and people with fewer comorbidities. Mortality increased throughout 2020, reaching a 2.5-fold increase during lockdown. Excess mortality was directly associated with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Mobility restrictions due to COVID-19 were associated with a reduction in MOF incidence in Catalonia, especially in younger people and in non-hip fractures. Post-fracture mortality was higher than in previous years due to the high COVID-19 mortality in the elderly.

Trends in mortality in septic patients according to the different organ failure during 15 years.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of sepsis can be estimated between 250 and 500 cases/100.000 people per year and is responsible for up to 6% of total hospital admissions. Identified as one of the most relevant global health problems, sepsis is the condition that generates the highest costs in the healthcare system. Important changes in the management of septic patients have been included in recent years; however, there is no information about how changes in the management of sepsis-associated organ failure have contributed to reduce mortality. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted from hospital discharge records from the Minimum Basic Data Set Acute-Care Hospitals (CMBD-HA in Catalan language) for the Catalan Health System (CatSalut). CMBD-HA is a mandatory population-based register of admissions to all public and private acute-care hospitals in Catalonia. Sepsis was defined by the presence of infection and at least one organ dysfunction. Patients hospitalized with sepsis were detected, according ICD-9-CM (since 2005 to 2017) and ICD-10-CM (2018 and 2019) codes used to identify acute organ dysfunction and infectious processes. RESULTS: Of 11.916.974 discharges from all acute-care hospitals during the study period (2005-2019), 296.554 had sepsis (2.49%). The mean annual sepsis incidence in the population was 264.1 per 100.000 inhabitants/year, and it increased every year, going from 144.5 in 2005 to 410.1 in 2019. Multiorgan failure was present in 21.9% and bacteremia in 26.3% of cases. Renal was the most frequent organ failure (56.8%), followed by cardiovascular (24.2%). Hospital mortality during the study period was 19.5%, but decreases continuously from 25.7% in 2005 to 17.9% in 2019 (p < 0.0001). The most important reduction in mortality was observed in cases with cardiovascular failure (from 47.3% in 2005 to 31.2% in 2019) (p < 0.0001). In the same way, mean mortality related to renal and respiratory failure in sepsis was decreased in last years (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of sepsis has been increasing in recent years in our country. However, hospital mortality has been significantly reduced. In septic patients, all organ failures except liver have shown a statistically significant reduction on associated mortality, with cardiovascular failure as the most relevant.

Heterogeneity in pharmacological treatment and outcomes in Crohn's disease patients in Catalonia: a population-based observational study.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in the treatment of a disease is a marker of suboptimal quality of care. The aim of this study is to evaluate the heterogeneity in the treatment used and the outcomes for Crohn's disease (CD) in Catalonia. METHODS: All patients with CD included in the Catalan Health Surveillance System (data on more than seven million individuals from 2011 to 2017) were identified. The different Catalonian health areas were grouped into 19 district groups (DG). Treatments used rates (systemic corticosteroids, non-biological and biological immunosuppressant) and outcomes rates (hospitalization and surgery) were calculated. RESULTS: The use of systemic corticosteroids presented a decreasing trend over the study period, with an average rate of use in the different territories between 11% and 17%. The use of non-biological immunosuppressant treatment has remained stable, with an average rate of use ranging from 22% to 40% per year depending on the DG. The use of biological immunosuppressant treatment increased with an average rate of use in the different territories ranging from 10 to 23%.Hospitalizations for any reason showed an increasing trend between 2011 and 2017 with an average rate of between 23% and 32% per year depending on the area. Hospitalizations for CD presented a decreasing trend, with an average rate of between 5% and 11% per year. Surgical treatment remained stable over time, rates per year were between 0.5% and 2%. CONCLUSION: A remarkable geographical heterogeneity in the use of different treatments and in outcomes of CD was observed between different geographical areas of Catalonia. KEY MESSAGEThere is a notable geographical heterogeneity in the administration of biological and immunosuppressive treatments to Crohn's disease patients in Catalonia.There is also a geographical heterogeneity in their rates of hospitalization and surgical intervention.

Epidemiology of major osteoporotic fractures: a population-based analysis in Catalonia, Spain.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of major osteoporotic fractures in Catalonia, Spain, in 2018 and 2019 and their association with age, sex, income, climate and a set of comorbidities. METHODS: Data on age, sex, smoking, alcohol abuse, comorbidities (obesity, Parkinson's disease, arthritis, chronic kidney disease, hepatic cirrhosis, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, cerebrovascular disease, hyperthyroidism, multiple myeloma and epilepsy) and income levels in people aged ≥ 50 years with a new diagnosis of major osteoporotic fractures in 2018 and 2019 were collected from the Catalan Health Surveillance System (CHSS). Climatological variables were obtained from the Catalan Meteorological Service. Incidence rates were estimated for five major osteoporotic fractures (MOF). Associations between osteoporotic fractures and age, sex, income, comorbidities and climate variables were ascertained through multilevel generalized linear model analysis (Poisson's regression). RESULTS: There were 60,671 MOF. The annual incidence rate per 1000 persons/years at risk (PYAR) was 10.6 (3.1 for hip, 2.3 for distal forearm, 2.2 for vertebrae, 1.7 for pelvis and 1.5 for proximal humerus). Female sex, older age, lower income, smoking, alcohol abuse and some common comorbidities were associated with a higher incidence of MOF while obesity was a protective factor. CONCLUSIONS: MOF are frequent in the adult Catalan population, especially in older women and people on low incomes. Hip fracture is the most frequent, followed by forearm and vertebral fractures. Smoking, alcohol abuse and some comorbidities were associated with an increased incidence of fracture.

Characteristics and Service Utilization by Complex Chronic and Advanced Chronic Patients in Catalonia: A Retrospective Seven-Year Cohort-Based Study of an Implemented Chronic Care Program.

The Chronic Care Program introduced in Catalonia in 2011 focuses on improving the identification and management of complex chronic (CCPs) and advanced chronic patients (ACPs) by implementing an individualized care model. Its first stage is their identification based on chronicity, difficult clinical management (i.e., complexity), and, in ACPs, limited life prognosis. Subsequent stages are individual evaluation and implementation of a shared personalized care plan. This retrospective study, including all CCPs and ACPs identified in Catalonia between 2013 and 2019, was aimed at describing the characteristics and healthcare service utilization among these patients. Data were obtained from an administrative database and included sociodemographic, clinical, and service utilization variables and morbidity-associated risk according to the Adjusted Morbidity Groups (GMA) stratification. During the study period, CCPs' and ACPs' prevalence increased and was higher in lower-income populations; most cases were women. CCPs and ACPs had all comorbidities at higher frequencies, higher utilization of healthcare services, and were more frequently at high risk (63% and 71%, respectively) than age-, sex-, and income level-adjusted non-CCP (23%) and non-ACP populations (30%). These results show effective identification of the program's target population and demonstrate that CCPs and ACPs have a higher burden of multimorbidity and healthcare needs.

Use of healthcare resources and drug expenditure before and after treatment of chronic hepatitis C with direct antiviral agents.

The aim of this study was to analyse the impact of treating chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with direct-acting agents (DAA) on the use of healthcare resources. We included all patients treated with DAA for CHC from January 2015 to December 2017 in Catalonia whose medical records from 12 months before to 24 months after treatment were available. Data were obtained from the Catalan Health Surveillance System. A total of 12,199 patients in Catalonia were treated with DAA for CHC. Of these, 11.3% had no-minimal fibrosis (F0-F1), 24.0% had moderate fibrosis (F2), 50.3% had significant fibrosis or cirrhosis (F3-F4), and 14.4% had decompensated cirrhosis. Use of healthcare resources decreased from the pre-treatment period to the post-treatment period for the following: hospital admissions due to complications of cirrhosis, from 0.19 to 0.12 per month per 100 patients (RR 0.57; 95% CI 0.47-0.68); length of hospital stay, from 12.9 to 12.2 days (RR 0.93; 95% CI 0.91-0.94); outpatient visits, from 65.0 to 49.2 (RR 0.75; 95% CI 0.74-0.75); and number of medication containers per patient per month, from 13.9 to 12.5 (RR 0.837; 95% CI 0.835-0.838). However, the number of invoices for antineoplastic treatment increased after DAA treatment, especially for patients with high morbidity or advanced fibrosis stage. In conclusion, a decrease in health resource use was seen in CHC patients treated with DAA, as measured by length of hospital stay, number of admissions due to cirrhosis complications, outpatient visits and overall drug invoicing. However, use of antineoplastic drugs increased significantly, especially in patients with cirrhosis and high morbidity.

Postoperative mortality after surgery for inflammatory bowel disease in the era of biological agents: A population-based study in Southern Europe.

BACKGROUND: Despite the efficacy of biological agents, surgery is still required for a large percentage of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). AIMS: To assess the postoperative mortality rates and associated risk factors in IBD patients in a population-based setting in the era of biological agents. METHODS: This is a population-based longitudinal study including all patients diagnosed with IBD in Catalonia who underwent intestinal resection or colectomy between 2007 and 2016, identified from the Catalan Health Surveillance System database. Logistic regression was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratio for postoperative in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Data for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) were analysed separately. RESULTS: A total of 1,660 interventions for CD (69%) and 738 for UC (31%) were performed at 55 centres. In-hospital and 30-day postoperative mortality rates were 2.1% and 2.5% for CD, and 5.4% and 6.4% for UC, respectively. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, comorbidity was associated with in-hospital and 30-day postoperative mortality in CD and UC, whereas age was only associated with mortality in CD and a non-laparoscopic surgical approach with UC. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of biologicals, the postoperative mortality rate for IBD depends mostly on co-morbidities and age.

Time Trends of Crohn's Disease in Catalonia from 2011 to 2017. Increasing Use of Biologics Correlates with a Reduced Need for Surgery.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Data from clinical trials suggest that biological drugs may improve the outcomes in Crohn's disease (CD) by reducing the need for surgery or hospitalization. The aim of this study is to evaluate the time-trends of the use of biological drugs and other treatments for CD, and its relationship with outcomes in Catalonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients with CD included in the Catalan Health Surveillance System (containing data on a population of more than 7.5 million) from 2011 to 2017 were identified. The exposures to different treatments for inflammatory bowel disease were retrieved from electronic invoicing records. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2017, the use of salicylates, corticosteroids and immunosuppressive treatment fell from 28.8% to 17.1%, 15.8% to 13.7%, and 32.9% to 29.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). Biological treatment use rose from 15.0% to 18.7% (p < 0.001). Ostomy rates per 1000 patients/year fell from 13.2 in 2011 to 9.8 in 2017 (p = 0.003), and surgical resection rates from 24.1 to 18.0 (p < 0.001). The rate of CD-related hospitalizations per 1000 patients/year also fell, from 92.7 to 72.2 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Biological drug use rose from 15.0% to 18.7% between 2011 and 2017. During this period, we observed an improvement in the outcomes of CD patients.

Outcomes and cost of lung cancer patients treated surgically or medically in Catalunya: cost-benefit implications for lung cancer screening programs.

Lung cancer screening programs with computed tomography of the chest reduce mortality by more than 20%. Yet, they have not been implemented widely because of logistic and cost implications. Here, we sought to: (1) use real-life data to compare the outcomes and cost of lung cancer patients with treated medically or surgically in our region and (2) from this data, estimate the cost-benefit ratio of a lung cancer screening program (CRIBAR) soon to be deployed in our region (Catalunya, Spain). We accessed the Catalan Health Surveillance System (CHSS) and analysed data of all patients with a first diagnosis of lung cancer between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016. Analysis was carried forward until 30 months (t = 30) after lung cancer diagnosis. Main results showed that: (1) surgically treated lung cancer patients have better survival and return earlier to regular home activities, use less healthcare related resources and cost less tax-payer money and (2) depending on incidence of lung cancer identified and treated in the program (1-2%), the return on investment for CRIBAR is expected to break even at 3-6 years, respectively, after its launch. Surgical treatment of lung cancer is cheaper and offers better outcomes. CRIBAR is estimated to be cost-effective soon after launch.

Evaluation of integrated care services in Catalonia: population-based and service-based real-life deployment protocols.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive assessment of integrated care deployment constitutes a major challenge to ensure quality, sustainability and transferability of both healthcare policies and services in the transition toward a coordinated service delivery scenario. To this end, the manuscript articulates four different protocols aiming at assessing large-scale implementation of integrated care, which are being developed within the umbrella of the regional project Nextcare (2016-2019), undertaken to foster innovation in technologically-supported services for chronic multimorbid patients in Catalonia (ES) (7.5 M inhabitants). Whereas one of the assessment protocols is designed to evaluate population-based deployment of care coordination at regional level during the period 2011-2017, the other three are service-based protocols addressing: i) Home hospitalization; ii) Prehabilitation for major surgery; and, iii) Community-based interventions for frail elderly chronic patients. All three services have demonstrated efficacy and potential for health value generation. They reflect different implementation maturity levels. While full coverage of the entire urban health district of Barcelona-Esquerra (520 k inhabitants) is the main aim of home hospitalization, demonstration of sustainability at Hospital Clinic of Barcelona constitutes the core goal of the prehabilitation service. Likewise, full coverage of integrated care services addressed to frail chronic patients is aimed at the city of Badalona (216 k inhabitants). METHODS: The population-based analysis, as well as the three service-based protocols, follow observational and experimental study designs using a non-randomized intervention group (integrated care) compared with a control group (usual care) with a propensity score matching method. Evaluation of cost-effectiveness of the interventions using a Quadruple aim approach is a central outcome in all protocols. Moreover, multi-criteria decision analysis is explored as an innovative method for health delivery assessment. The following additional dimensions will also be addressed: i) Determinants of sustainability and scalability of the services; ii) Assessment of the technological support; iii) Enhanced health risk assessment; and, iv) Factors modulating service transferability. DISCUSSION: The current study offers a unique opportunity to undertake a comprehensive assessment of integrated care fostering deployment of services at regional level. The study outcomes will contribute refining service workflows, improving health risk assessment and generating recommendations for service selection. TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03130283 (date released 04/06/2018), NCT03768050 (date released 12/05/2018), NCT03767387 (date released 12/05/2018).

Prevalence, incidence and mortality of inflammatory bowel disease in Catalonia. A population-based analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Few recent data on the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are available, especially in Southern Europe. AIM: To evaluate the prevalence, incidence and mortality of IBD in Catalonia during the period 2011-2016. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data on the prevalence, incidence and mortality of IBD were obtained from the Catalan Health Surveillance System (CHSS). Crude incidence and prevalence rates were calculated for all the Catalan population. Trends in age-sex-adjusted rates were also estimated, and logistic regression was used to calculate the adjusted mortality odds ratio (OR). Data for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) were analyzed separately. RESULTS: The prevalence per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016 was 353.9 for UC and 191.4 for CD. The total number of IBD patients rose from 29543 in 2011 to 40614 in 2016. IBD was associated with significantly elevated adjusted mortality ratios: 1.28 (95% CI: 1.6-1.4) for UC and 1.85 (95% CI: 1.62-2.12) for CD. CONCLUSIONS: IBD prevalence is very high and is increasing rapidly in Catalonia. Both CD and UC are associated with significantly higher mortality rates. Key message Crohn disease and ulcerative colitis present a small but significant increase in mortality compared to non-inflammatory bowel disease. The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is increasing rapidly in Catalonia. Data on prevalence and incidence suggest that the number of patients may double in approximately 10 years.

Risk and temporal order of disease diagnosis of comorbidities in patients with COPD: a population health perspective.

INTRODUCTION: Comorbidities in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) generate a major burden on healthcare. Identification of cost-effective strategies aiming at preventing and enhancing management of comorbid conditions in patients with COPD requires deeper knowledge on epidemiological patterns and on shared biological pathways explaining co-occurrence of diseases. METHODS: The study assesses the co-occurrence of several chronic conditions in patients with COPD using two different datasets: Catalan Healthcare Surveillance System (CHSS) (ES, 1.4 million registries) and Medicare (USA, 13 million registries). Temporal order of disease diagnosis was analysed in the CHSS dataset. RESULTS: The results demonstrate higher prevalence of most of the diseases, as comorbid conditions, in elderly (>65) patients with COPD compared with non-COPD subjects, an effect observed in both CHSS and Medicare datasets. Analysis of temporal order of disease diagnosis showed that comorbid conditions in elderly patients with COPD tend to appear after the diagnosis of the obstructive disease, rather than before it. CONCLUSION: The results provide a population health perspective of the comorbidity challenge in patients with COPD, indicating the increased risk of developing comorbid conditions in these patients. The research reinforces the need for novel approaches in the prevention and management of comorbidities in patients with COPD to effectively reduce the overall burden of the disease on these patients.

Economic burden of cirrhosis in Catalonia: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis is a chronic disease with high morbidity and mortality. Few studies have evaluated healthcare resource use in patients with cirrhosis. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to describe the point prevalence of cirrhosis on 31 December 2012 and the population-level distribution of healthcare resource use and expenditures in a non-selected population of patients with cirrhosis, stratified by whether their disease was compensated or decompensated, and by comorbidity burden. METHODS: This population study included all known patients aged >18 years with cirrhosis (according to International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision) in Catalonia, Spain, on 31 December 2012. We evaluated healthcare resource use and expenditure during 2013, taking into account the presence of decompensation before or during 2012. RESULTS: We documented 34 740 patients diagnosed with cirrhosis (58.7% men; mean age 61.8±14 years), yielding a point prevalence of 460 per 100 000 inhabitants on 31 December 2012. Annual mortality was 9.1%. During 2013, healthcare expenditures on patients with cirrhosis totalled €142.1 million (€4234 per patient), representing 1.8% of the total 2013 healthcare budget of Catalonia. Hospitalisation costs accounted for 35.1% of the total expenditure and outpatient care accounted for 22.4%. MultivariateMultivariate logistic regression identified morbidity burden, HIV infection, hospitalisation and emergency room visits during 2012 as independent predictors of expenditure above the 85th centile (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.88 (95% CI 0.883 to 0.893, P<0.001)). CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis accounts for a high proportion of healthcare resource usage and expenditures; hospitalisation accounted for the highest expenditures.

Population-based analysis of patients with COPD in Catalonia: a cohort study with implications for clinical management.

BACKGROUND: Clinical management of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) shows potential for improvement provided that patients' heterogeneities are better understood. The study addresses the impact of comorbidities and its role in health risk assessment. OBJECTIVE: To explore the potential of health registry information to enhance clinical risk assessment and stratification. DESIGN: Fixed cohort study including all registered patients with COPD in Catalonia (Spain) (7.5 million citizens) at 31 December 2014 with 1-year (2015) follow-up. METHODS: A total of 264 830 patients with COPD diagnosis, based on the International Classification of Diseases (Ninth Revision) coding, were assessed. Performance of multiple logistic regression models for the six main dependent variables of the study: mortality, hospitalisations (patients with one or more admissions; all cases and COPD-related), multiple hospitalisations (patients with at least two admissions; all causes and COPD-related) and users with high healthcare costs. Neither clinical nor forced spirometry data were available. RESULTS: Multimorbidity, assessed with the adjusted morbidity grouper, was the covariate with the highest impact in the predictive models, which in turn showed high performance measured by the C-statistics: (1) mortality (0.83), (2 and 3) hospitalisations (all causes: 0.77; COPD-related: 0.81), (4 and 5) multiple hospitalisations (all causes: 0.80; COPD-related: 0.87) and (6) users with high healthcare costs (0.76). Fifteen per cent of individuals with highest healthcare costs to year ratio represented 59% of the overall costs of patients with COPD. CONCLUSIONS: The results stress the impact of assessing multimorbidity with the adjusted morbidity grouper on considered health indicators, which has implications for enhanced COPD staging and clinical management. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02956395.

Epidemiology of sepsis in Catalonia: analysis of incidence and outcomes in a European setting.

BACKGROUND: Up-to-date identification of local trends in sepsis incidence and outcomes is of considerable public health importance. The aim of our study was to estimate annual incidence rates and in-hospital mortality trends for hospitalized patients with sepsis in a European setting, while avoiding selection bias in relation to different complexity hospitals. METHODS: A large retrospective analysis of a 5-year period (2008-2012) was conducted of hospital discharge records obtained from the Catalan Health System (CatSalut) Minimum Basic Data Set for Acute-Care Hospitals (a mandatory population-based register of admissions to all public and private acute-care hospitals in Catalonia). Patients hospitalized with sepsis were detected on the basis of ICD-9-CM codes used to identify acute organ dysfunction and infectious processes. RESULTS: Of 4,761,726 discharges from all acute-care hospitals in Catalonia, 82,300 cases (1.72%) had sepsis diagnoses. Annual incidence was 212.7 per 100,000 inhabitants/year, rising from 167.2 in 2008 to 261.8 in 2012. Length of hospital stay fell from 18.4 to 15.3 days (p < .00001), representing a relative reduction of 17%. Hospital mortality fell from 23.7 to 19.7% (p < .0001), representing a relative reduction of 16.9%. These differences were confirmed in the multivariate analysis (adjusted for age group, sex, comorbidities, ICU admission, emergency admission, organ dysfunction, number of organ failures, sepsis source and bacteraemia). CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis incidence has risen in recent years, whereas mortality has fallen. Our findings confirm reports for other parts of the world, in the context of scarce administrative data on sepsis in Europe.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. SETTINGS: The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). PARTICIPANTS: Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. RESULTS: There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation.